If you’re reading this, then congrats, you’re early.
I started this newsletter in May of 2021. Ethereum, Bitcoin, DOGE, and the rest of the market had already been running for over 6 months at that point. New narratives like TopShot and Beeple had already come and gone, and the biggest ones like Profile Pictures, Olympus, Axie Infinity, were underway or just starting.
And this newsletter didn’t start to gain steam for another few months, so odds are when you found this and subscribed, a good chunk of the opportunities were behind us.
This time it’s different. If you’re here now, then you’re well ahead of the mania. Crypto has only been “exciting” again for about two weeks. Bitcoin has broken to a new high, as has Solana, but not by massive percentages, and ETH hasn’t even broken its ATH yet.
The new narratives are just getting started, and there are sure to be many more over the next year or two as things heat up and get silly.
For comparison, if we overlaid this cycle with last one, Bored Apes were still six months away. Olympus hadn’t launched yet. No one knew what an Axie was. ETH was sitting around $500. You are EARLY.
I’m going to share a few things I’m looking at and excited about later this week. But in the meantime, I wanted to share a recommended reading list of pieces on this site that have held up from last time to help mentally prepare you to make the most of this period.
First: Read Crypto Confidential. This is obviously going to be the most helpful both from a strategic and psychological perspective, and if you haven’t picked it up yet, I highly recommend grabbing it.
Second: Read these articles:
My Biggest Mistakes: This article covers some of the biggest mistakes I made during the mania that cost me the most money, and the lessons I learned from them.
My Best Decisions: The opposite of the previous article, these are the things I did that seemed to lead to the best outcomes.
Understanding and Profiting from Hype Cycles: An explanation of the hype cycle meta in crypto so you don’t get too caught up in one.
When to Sell: Creating Rules for Taking Profit: It’s easier to buy at the right time than to sell at the right time. So make sure you’re thinking about these rules now.
The Tokenomics Series: These articles explain how to evaluate new token launches:
Where Yield Comes From: Most yield in crypto is inflationary and very risky to get too excited about. Make sure you know where it’s coming from!
Enjoy! And if there’s any topic you want me to cover, leave a comment and let me know.
Great read Nat!
I've been thinking a lot about stop loss strategy. Since you mentioned you didn't have any in 2020-2022, how do you plan to approach it this time? Looking back, what could have been a solid stop loss strategy?